In this section
ICEPT staff and PhD students publish widely in a range of academic journals, policy reports and technical papers.
@article{Cael:2026:10.1029/2025GL121070,
author = {Cael, BB and Foster, GL and Gregory, JM and Jansen, MF and Osman, MB and Tierney, JE},
doi = {10.1029/2025GL121070},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
title = {The Glacial-Interglacial CO2-Temperature Relationship},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121070},
volume = {53},
year = {2026}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - The slope (Formula presented.) of the global mean surface temperature (GMST)–atmospheric carbon dioxide ((Formula presented.)) relationship, sometimes termed Earth system sensitivity, is a holistic measure of Earth's response to radiative forcings. We identify a surprising trend in (Formula presented.) over the past 800 kyr, when it reflects the net carbon cycle feedback's response to GMST changes. We estimate (Formula presented.) roughly doubled over this period. This trend is robust to record completeness and reported age error, and across multiple GMST reconstructions and proxy types. Paradoxically, however, site-specific records do not show increasing temperature variability relative to (Formula presented.). This implies either age errors are substantially underestimated, or local variations in temperature became more synchronized over the more recent glacial-interglacial cycles, possibly via either a strengthening ice-albedo feedback or phase locking and spatially variable carbon cycle feedbacks.
AU - Cael,BB
AU - Foster,GL
AU - Gregory,JM
AU - Jansen,MF
AU - Osman,MB
AU - Tierney,JE
DO - 10.1029/2025GL121070
PY - 2026///
SN - 0094-8276
TI - The Glacial-Interglacial CO2-Temperature Relationship
T2 - Geophysical Research Letters
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121070
VL - 53
ER -