Since the emergence of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) in December 2019, we have adopted a policy of immediately sharing research findings on the developing pandemic. This page provides an overview of all publications by the 51勛圖厙 College COVID-19 Response Team. This includes papers based on the online reports.

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Peer reviewed

OJ Watson, G Barnsley, J Toor, AB Hogan, P Winskill, AC Ghani. Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 23-06-2022. doi:

A Brizzi, C Whitaker, LMS Servo et al. Spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals. Nature Medicine, 10 May 2022. doi:

E Lavezzo, M Pacenti, L Manuto et al. Neutralising reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants by vaccination and infection history. BMC Genome Medicine, 10 June 2022. doi:

L Sibissi, A von Gottberg, L Thukral et al. An early warning system for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. Nature Medicine, 30 May 2022. doi:

P Elliot, O Eales, N Steyn et al. Twin peaks: The Omicron SARS-CoV-2 BA.1 and BA.2 epidemics in England. Science, 24-05-2022. doi:

M Drolet, A Godbout, M Mondor et al. Time trends in social contacts before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: the CONNECT study. BMC Public Health, 23 May 2022. doi:

S Mandal, K Parchani, N Arinaminpathy, S Sarkar, B Bhargava, S Panda. Imperfect but useful: pandemic response in the Global South can benefit from greater use of mathematical modelling. BMJ Global Health, 11 May 2022. doi:

G Leech, C Rogers-Smith, J Teperowski Monrad et al. Mask wearing in community settings reduces SARS-CoV-2 transmission. PNAS, 31 May 2022. doi:

L Subissi, A von Gottberg, L Thukral et al. An early warning system for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. Nature Medicine, 30 May 2022. doi:

NF Brazeau, R Verity, S Jenks et al. Estimating the COVID-19 infection fatality ratio accounting for seroreversion using statistical modelling. Nature Communications Medicine, 19 May 2022. doi:

L Lenggenhager, R Martischang, J Sauser et al. Occupational and community risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among employees of a long-term care facility: an observational study. BMC Antimicrobial Resistance & Infection Control, 18 March 2022. doi:

M Chadeau-Hyam, O Eales, B Bodinier et al. Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections in double and triple vaccinated adults and single dose vaccine effectiveness among children in Autumn 2021 in England: REACT-1 study. eClinicalMedicine, June 2022. doi:

H Xin, Y Li, P Wu et al. Estimating the Latent Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Clinical Infectious Diseases, 1 May 2022. doi:            

D. Haw, G Forchini, P Doohan et al. Optimizing social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using DAEDALUS. Nature Computational Science, 28-04-2022. doi:  

M Whitaker, J Elliott, M Chadeau-Hyam et al. Persistent COVID-19 symptoms in a community study of 606,434 people in England. Nature Communications, 12-04-2022. doi:

EY Cramer, EL Ray, VK Lopez et al. Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States. PNAS, 08-04-2022. doi:

M Pons-Salort, J John, OJ Watson et al. Reassessing Reported Deaths and Estimated Infection Attack Rate during the First 6 Months of the COVID-19 Epidemic, Delhi, India. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 04-04-2022. doi:

B Killingley, AJ Mann, M Kalinova et al. Safety, tolerability and viral kinetics during SARS-CoV-2 human challenge in young adults. Nature medicine, 31-03-2022. doi:

L Lenggenhager, R Martischang, J Sauser et al. Occupational and community risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among employees of a long-term care facility: an observational study. BMC Antimicrobial Resistance & Infection Control, 18 March 2022. doi:

A Brizzi, M ODriscoll, I Dorigatti. Refining reproduction number estimates to account for unobserved generations of infection in emerging epidemics. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 17 February 2022. doi:

T Nyberg, NM Ferguson, SG Nash et al. Comparative analysis of the risks of hospitalisation and death associated with SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529) and delta (B.1.617.2) variants in England: a cohort study. The Lancet, 16 March 2022. doi:

D Olivera Mesa, AB Hogan, OJ Watson GD Charles, K Hauck, A Ghani, P Winskill. Modelling the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature Communications, 10 February 2022. doi:

D Aggarwal, AJ Page, U Schaefer et al. Genomic assessment of quarantine measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 importation and transmission. Nature Communications, 23-02-2022. doi:

L Manuto, M Grazioli,A Spitaleri et al. Rapid SARS-CoV-2 Intra-Host and Within-Household Emergence of Novel Haplotypes. Viruses, 15-02-2022. doi:

HJT Unwin, S Hillis, L Cluver et al. Global, regional, and national minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, by age and family circumstance up to Oct 31, 2021: an updated modelling study. The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health, 24-02-2022. doi:

H Ward, M Whitaker, B Flower et al. Population antibody responses following COVID-19 vaccination in 212,102 individuals. Nature Communications (16-02-2022). doi:

LF Reyes, S Murthi E Garcia-Gallo et al. Clinical characteristics, risk factors and outcomes in patients with severe COVID-19 registered in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium WHO clinical characterisation protocol: a prospective, multinational, multicentre, observational study. ERJ Open Research (14-02-2022). doi:

P Elliot, B Bodinier, O Eales et al. Rapid increase in Omicron infections in England during December 2021: REACT-1 study. Science (08-02-2022). doi:

M Ghafari, L du Plessis, J Raghwani et al. Purifying Selection Determines the Short-Term Time Dependency of Evolutionary Rates in SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 Influenza. Molecular Biology and Evolution, 17 January 2022. doi:

JD Challenger, CY Foo, Y Wu et al. Modelling upper respiratory viral load dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. BMC Medicine, 13 January 2022. doi:

CA Prete, LF Buss, R Buccheri et al.  Reinfection by the SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant in blood donors in Manaus, Brazil. BMC Infectious Diseases, 05-02-2022. doi:

BB Lindsey, CJ Villabona-Arenas, F Campbell et al. Characterising within-hospitalSARS-CoV-2 transmission events using epidemiological and viral genomic data across two pandemic waves. Nature Communications, 3 February 2022. doi:

M Chadeau-Hyam, H Wang, O Eales et al. SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccine effectiveness in England (REACT-1): a series of cross-sectional random community surveys. The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, 24-01-2022. doi:

T Mourier, M Shuaib, S Hala et al. SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Saudi Arabia implicate nucleocapsid mutations in host response and increased viral load. Nature Communications, 1 January 2022. doi:

P Mee, N Alexander, P Mayaud t al. Tracking the emergence of disparities in the subnational spread of COVID-19 in Brazil using an online application for real-time data visualisation: A longitudinal analysis. The Lancet Regional Health Americas, January 2022. doi:

KV Parag, BJ Cowling, CA Donnelly. Deciphering early-warning signals of SARS-CoV-2 elimination and resurgence from limited data at multiple scales. Journal of the Royal Society, 15-12-2021. doi:

L Scott, NY Hsiao, S Moyo et al. Track Omicrons spread with molecular data. Science, 9-12-2021. doi:

H Houston, S Hakki, TD Pillay et al. Broadening symptom criteria improves early case identification in SARS-CoV-2 contacts. European Respiratory Journal 2021. doi:

VC Nicolete, PT Rodrigues, IC Johansen et al. Interacting Epidemics in Amazonian Brazil: Prior Dengue Infection Associated With Increased Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Risk in a Population-Based Cohort Study. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 01-12-2021. doi:

EA Kendall, N Arinaminpathy, JA Sacks et al. Antigen-based Rapid Diagnostic Testing or Alternatives for Diagnosis of Symptomatic COVID-19 A Simulation-based Net Benefit Analysis. Epidemiology, 11-2021. doi:

ISARIC Clinical Characterisation Group, MD Hall, J Baruch et al. Ten months of temporal variation in the clinical journey of hospitalised patients with COVID-19: an observational cohort. eLife, 23-11-2021.doi:

P Elliot, D Haw, H Wang et al. Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant. Science, 02-11-2021. doi:

R McCabe, MD Kont, N Schmit et al. Communicating uncertainty in epidemic models. Epidemics, 02-11-2021. Doi:

D Gurdasani, S Bhatt, A Costello et al. Vaccinating adolescents against SARS-CoV-2 in England: a riskbenefit analysis. Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, 01-11-2021. doi:

A Singanayagam, S Hakki, J Dunning et al. Community transmission and viral load kinetics of the SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in the UK: a prospective, longitudinal, cohort study. The Lancet, 28-10-2021. doi:

LR Williams NM Ferguson, CA Donnelly, NC Grassly. Measuring vaccine efficacy against infection and disease in clinical trials: sources and magnitude of bias in COVID-19 vaccine efficacy estimates. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 26-10-2021. Doi:  

R Sonabend, LK Whittles, N Imai et al. Non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccination, and the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in England: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet, 27-10-2021. doi:

LR Williams, NM Ferguson, CA Donnelly, NC Grassly. Measuring vaccine efficacy against infection and disease in clinical trials: sources and magnitude of bias in COVID-19 vaccine efficacy estimates. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 26-10-2021. doi:

WM de Souza, SP Muraro, GF Souza et al. Clusters of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 Infection after Vaccination with Adenovirus-Vectored and Inactivated Vaccines. Viruses, 22-10-2021. doi:

G Milne, T Hames, C Scotton et al. Does infection with or vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 lead to lasting immunity?  The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, 21-10-2021. Doi:

HS Vohringer, T Sanderson, M Sinnott et al. Genomic reconstruction of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England. Nature, 14-10-2021. doi:

MS Dhar, R Marwal, VS Radhakrishnan et al. Genomic characterization and epidemiology of an emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant in Delhi, India. Science, 14-10-2021. doi:

RM Anderson, C Vegvari, TD Hollingsworth et al. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: remaining uncertainties in our understanding of the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the virus, and challenges to be overcome. Interface Focus, 12-10-2021. Doi:

C Whittacker, PGT Walker, M Alhaffar et al. Under-reporting of deaths limits our understanding of true burden of COVID-19. The BMJ, 12-10-2021. Doi:

Y Mo, DW Eyre, SF Lumley et al. Transmission of community- and hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 in hospital settings in the UK: A cohort study. PLoS Medicine, 12-10-2021. doi:

R McCabe, CA Donnelly. Disease transmission and control modelling at the sciencepolicy interface. Interface Focus, 12-10-2021. doi:

SD Hillis, A Blenkinsop, A Villaveces A et al. COVID-19-associated Orphanhood and Caregiver Death in the United States. Pediatrics 07-10-2021. doi:

J Ohrnberger, A Segal, G Forchini et al. The impact of a COVID-19 lockdown on work productivity under good and poor compliance. European Journal of Public Health, 05-10-2021. Doi:

M Sharma, S Mindermann, C Rogers-Smith et al. Understanding the effectiveness of government interventions against the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe. Nature, 05-10-2021. doi:  

B Davies, M Araghi, M Moshe et al. Acceptability, Usability, and Performance of Lateral Flow Immunoassay Tests for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Antibodies: REACT-2 Study of Self-Testing in Nonhealthcare Key Workers. Open Forum Infectious Diseases, 04-10-2021. doi:

WM Souza, MR Amorim, R Sesti-Costa et al. Neutralisation of SARS-CoV-2 lineage P.1 by antibodies elicited through natural SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination with an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine: an immunological study. The Lancet Microbe, 01-10-2021. doi:

A Desai, P Nouvellet, S Bhatia, A Cori, B Lassmann. Data journalism and the COVID-19 pandemic: opportunities and challenges. Lancet Digital Health, 01-10-2021. doi:

J Elliott, M Whitaker, B Bodinier et al. Predictive symptoms for COVID-19 in the community: REACT-1 study of over 1 million people. PLOS Medicine, 28-09-2021. doi:

NA Molodecky, H Jafari, RM Safdar et al. Modelling the spread of serotype-2 vaccine derived-poliovirus outbreak in Pakistan and Afghanistan to inform outbreak control strategies in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccine, 25-09-2021. doi:

MAC Vollmer, S Radhakrishnan, MD Kont et al. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patterns of atendance at emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study. BMC Health Services Research, 23-09-2021. Doi:

H Xin, Y Li, P Wu et al. Estimating the Latent Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Clinical Infectious Diseases, 22-09-2021. Doi:

C Whittaker, OJ Watson, C Alvarez-Moreno et al. Understanding the Potential Impact of Different Drug Properties on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Transmission and Disease Burden: A Modelling Analysis. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 21-09-2021. doi:

A OToole, V Hill, OG Pybus et al. Tracking the international spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineages B.1.1.7 and B.1.351/501Y-V2 with grinch. Wellcome Open Research, 17-09-2021. doi:

S Mishra, JA Scott, DJ Laydon et al. Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling. Scientific Reports, 11-09-2021. doi:

P Mlcochova, SA Kemp, MS Dhar et al. SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 Delta variant replication and immune evasion. Nature, 06-09-2021. doi:  

S Mishra, S Mindermann, M Sharma et al. Changing composition of SARS-CoV-2 lineages and rise of Delta variant in England. Lancet EClinicalMedicine, 01-09-2021. doi:  

H Wilde, T Mellan, I Hawryluk et al. The association between mechanical ventilator compatible bed occupancy and mortality risk in intensive care patients with COVID-19: a national retrospective cohort study. BMC Medicine, 30-08-2021. doi:  

MUG Kraemer, V Hill, C Ruis et al. Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence. Science, 19-08-2021. doi:

J. DAeth, S Ghosal, F Grimm, et al. Optimal national prioritization policies for hospital care during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Nature Computational Science, 13-08-2021. Doi:

S Mishra, JA Scott, DJ Laydon et al. Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling. Nature Sci Rep, 11-08-2021. doi:  

T Mangal, C Whittaker, D Nkhoma et al. Potential impact of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission in Malawi: a mathematical modelling study. BMJ Open, 22-07-2021. doi:

S Hillis, HJT Unwin, Y Chen et al. Global minimum estimates for COVID-19-associated orphanhood and deaths among caregivers: a modelling study. Lancet, 20-07-2021. doi:

I Dorigatti, E Lavezzo, L Manuto et al. SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics and transmission from community-wide serological testing in the Italian municipality of Vo. Nature Communications, 19-07-2021. doi:

E Knock, L Whittles, J Lees, et al. Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England. Science Translational Medicine. 14-07-2021 DOI:

KAM Gaythorpe, S Bhatia, T Mangal et al. Childrens role in the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of early surveillance data on susceptibility, severity, and transmissibility. Nature Scientific Reports, 06-07-2021. Doi:

S Mandal, N Arinaminpathy, B Bhargava, S Panda. Indias pragmatic vaccination strategy against COVID-19: a mathematical modelling-based analysis. BMJ Open, 02-07-2021. doi:

R Silhol, L Geidelberg, KM Mitchell et al. Assessing the Potential Impact of Disruptions Due to COVID-19 on HIV Among Key and Lower-Risk Populations in the Largest Cities of Cameroon and Benin. JAIDS, 01-07-2021. doi:

S Mandal, N Arinaminpathy, B Bhargava, S Panda. Responsive and agile vaccination strategies against COVID-19 in India. The Lancet Global Health, 01-07-2021. doi:

ISARIC Clinical Characterisation Group (including Donnelly CA). COVID-19 symptoms at hospital admission vary with age and sex: results from the ISARIC prospective multinational observational study. Infection, 25-06-2021. doi:

TP Smith, S Flaxman, AS Gallinat et al. Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions. PNAS, 22-06-2021. doi:

BA Djaafara, C Whittaker, OJ Watson et al. Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout. BMC Medicine, 18-06-2021. doi:

MS Kiti, OGAguolu, CY Liu et al. Social contact patterns among employees in 3 U.S. companies during early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, April to June 2020. Epidemics, 17-06-2021. doi:

N Arinaminpathy, J Das, TH McCormick, P Mukhopadhyay, N Sircar. Quantifying heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the lockdown in India. Epidemics, 17-06-2021. doi:

S Bhatia, N Imai, G Cuomo-Dannenburg et al. Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China. Wellcome Open Research, 15-06-2021. doi:

B Meng, SA Kemp, G Papa et al.  Recurrent emergence of SARS-CoV-2 spike deletion H69/V70 and its role in the Alpha variant B.1.1.7. Cell Reports, 08-06-2021. doi:

S Mandal, N Arinaminpathy, B Bhargava, S Panda. Plausibility of a third wave of COVID-19 in India. Indian Journal of Medical Research, 05/06-2021. doi:

E Brooks-Pollock, L Danon, T Jombart, L Pellis. Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, 31-05-2021. doi:

T Jombart, S Ghozzi, D Schumacher et al. Real-time monitoring of COVID-19 dynamics using automated trend fitting and anomaly detection. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, 31-05-2021. doi:

S Riley, KEC Ainslie, O Eales et al. Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 in England: detection by community antigen surveillance. Science, 28-05-2021. doi:   

FRR Moreira, DM Bonfim, DAG Zauli et al. Epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in Brazil. Viruses, 26-05-2021. doi:

NR Faria, T Mellan, C Whittaker et al. Genomics and epidemiology of the P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil. Science, 21-05-2021. doi:

AB Hogan, P Winskill, OJ Watson et al. Within-country age-based prioritisation, global allocation, and public health impact of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2: A mathematical modelling analysis. Vaccine, 21-05-2021. doi:

FA Lovell-Read, S Funk, U Obolski, CA Donnelly, RN Thompson. Interventions targeting non-symptomatic cases can be important to prevent local outbreaks: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 19-05-2021. doi:

CBF Vogels, MI Breban, IM Ott et al. Multiplex qPCR discriminates variants of concern to enhance global surveillance of SARS-CoV-2. PLOS Biology, 07-05-2021. doi:

H Ward, GS Cooke, C Atchison et al. Prevalence of antibody positivity to SARS-CoV-2 following the first peak of infection in England: serial cross-sectional studies of 365,000 adults. The Lancet Regional Health Europe 4, 02-05-2021. doi:

SL Li, RHM Pereira, CA Prete Jr et al. Higher risk of death from COVID-19 in low-income and non-White populations of S瓊o Paulo, Brazil. BMJ Global Health, 29-04-2021. doi:

S Riley, KEC Ainslie, O Eales et al. Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2: detection by community viral surveillance. Science 23-04-2021. doi:

OJ Watson, M Alhaffar, Z Mehchy et al. Leveraging community mortality indicators to infer COVID-19 mortality and transmission dynamics in Damascus, Syria. Nature Communications, 22-04-21. doi:

DJ Laydon, S Mishra, WR Hinsley et al. Modelling the impact of the tier system on SARS-COV-2 transmission in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns. BMJ Open, 22-04-2021. doi:

S Riley, C Atchison, D Ashby et al.  (REACT Study Group). Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT) of SARS-CoV-2 virus: Study protocol. Wellcome Open Research, 21-04-2021. doi:

M Ragonnet-Cronin, O Boyd, L Geidelberg et al. Genetic evidence for the association between COVID-19 epidemic severity and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Nature Communications, 12-04-21. doi:

MS Graham, CH Sudre, A May et al. Changes in symptomatology, reinfection, and transmissibility associated with the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: an ecological study. The Lancet Public Health, 12-04-2021. doi:

R McCabe, MD Kont, N Schmit et al. Modelling intensive care unit capacity under different epidemiological scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic in three Western European countries. International Journal of Epidemiology, 09-04-21, doi:

E Volz, S Mishra, M Chand et al. Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England. Nature. 25-03-2021.

L. Geidelberg, O Boyd, D Jorgensen et al. Genomic epidemiology of a densely sampled COVID-19 outbreak in China. Virus Evolution, 14-03-2021. doi:

S Ricks, EA Kendall, DW Dowdy et al. Quantifying the potential value of antigen-detection rapid diagnosis tests for COVID-19: a modelling analysis. BMC Medicine, 09-03-2021. doi:

AA de Souza Santos, D da Silva Candido, WM de Souza et al. Dataset on SARS-CoV-2 non-pharmaceutical interventions in Brazilian municipalities. Nature, 04-03-2021. doi:

M Moshe, A Daunt, B Flower et al. SARS-CoV-2 lateral flow assays for possible use in national covid-19 seroprevalence surveys (React 2): diagnostic accuracy study. BMJ, 02-03-2021. doi:

WM de Souza, MR Amorim, R Sesti-Costa et al. Levels of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage P.1 Neutralization by Antibodies Elicited after Natural Infection and Vaccination. The Lancet, 01-03-2021. doi:

D Franco, C Gonzalez, LE Abrego et al. Early Transmission Dynamics, Spread, and Genomic Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 in Panama. Emerging Infectious Diseases; 02-2021, doi: 

KM Mitchell, D Dimitrov, R Silhol et al. The potential effect of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence and HIV-related mortality among men who have sex with men in the USA: a modelling study. The Lancet HIV; 19-02-2021, doi: 

JM Brauner, S Mindermann, M Sharma et al. Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19. Science, 19-02-2021. doi:

P Nouvellet, S Bhatia, A Cori et al. Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission. Nature Communications; 17-02-2021, doi: 

L Du Plessis, JT McCrone, AE Zarebski et al. Establishment and linage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK. Science, 12-02-2021. doi:

H Ward, C Atchison, M Whitaker et al. SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence in England following the first peak of the pandemic. Nature Communications; 10-02-2021, doi: 

HA Thompson, A Mousa, A Dighe et al. SARS-CoV-2 setting-specific transmission rates: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Clinical Infectious Diseases; 09-02-2021, doi: 

SA Kemp, DA Collier, RP Datir et al. SARS-CoV-2 evolution during treatment of chronic infection. Nature, 05-02-2021. doi:

M Monod, A Blenkinsop, X Xi et al. Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States. Science; 02-02-2021, doi: 

P Christen, JC D'Aeth, A Lochen et al. The J-IDEA Pandemic Planner: A Framework for Implementing Hospital Provision Interventions During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Journal of Medical Care; 21-01-2021, doi: 

JID Hamley, DJ Blok, M Walker et al. What does the COVID-19 pandemic mean for the next decade of onchocerciasis control and elimination? Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene; 29-01-2021, doi: 

P Middleton, PN Perez-Guzman, A Cheng et al. Characteristics and outcomes of clinically diagnosed RT-PCR swab negative COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study. Scientific Reports; 28-01-2021, doi: 

S Mandal, H Das, S Deo, N Arinaminpathy. Combining serology with case-detection, to allow the easing of restrictions against SARS-CoV-2: a modelling-based study in India. Scientific Reports; 29-01-2021, doi: 

K Kura, D Ayabina, J Toor et al. Disruptions to schistosomiasis programmes due to COVID-19: an analysis of potential impact and mitigation strategies. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene; 29-01-2021, doi: 

LF Buss, CA Prete Jr, CMM Abrahim et al. Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic. Science; 15-01-2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abe9728

L du Plessis, JT McCrone, AE Zarebski et al.  Establishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK. Science; 08-01-2021, doi: 

CJ Atchison, L Bowman, C Vrinten, et al. Perceptions and behavioural responses of the general public during the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-sectional survey of UK Adults. BMJ Open Research; 04-01-2021, doi:

EM Volz, V Hill, JT McCrone et al. Evaluating the effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike mutation D614G on transmissibility and pathogenicity. Cell, 01-09-2020. doi:

G Li, Y Liu, X Jing et al. Mortality risk of COVID-19 in elderly males with comorbidities: a multi-country study. Aging; 31-12-2020, doi: 

V Malizia, F Giardina, C Vegvari et al. Modelling the impact of COVID-19-related control programme interruptions on progress towards the WHO 2030 target for soil-transmitted helminths. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene; 14-12-2020, doi: 

LF Buss, CA Prete Jr, CMM Abrahim et al. Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic. Science; 08-12-2020, doi: 

HJT Unwin, S Mishra, VC Bradley et al. State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States. Nature Comms; 03-12-2020, doi: 

H Fu, H Wang, X Xi et al. Database of epidemic trends and control measures during the first wave of COVID-19 in mainland China. International Journal of Infectious Diseases; first online 02-12-2020, doi: 

KV Parag, CA Donnelly, R Jha, RN Thompson. An exact method for quantifying the reliability of end-of-epidemic declarations in real time. PLoS Computational Biology; 30-11-2020, doi: 

M Biggerstaff, BJ Cowling, ZM Cucunub獺 et al. for the WHO COVID-19 Modelling Parameters Group. Early insights from statistical and mathematical modeling of key epidemiologic parameters of COVID-19. Emerg Infect Dis. 26-11-2020, doi: 

I Hawryluk, TA Mellan, H Hoeltgebaum et al. Inference of COVID-19 epidemiological distributions from Brazilian hospital data. Journal of the Royal Society Interface; 25-11-2020, doi: 

RM Anderson, C Vegvari, J Truscott, BJ Collyer. Challenges in creating herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection by mass vaccination. The Lancet; 04-11-2020, doi: 

S Dellicour, K Durkin, SL Hong et al. A phylodynamic workflow to rapidly gain insights into the dispersal history and dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineages. Molecular Biology and Evolution; 03-11-2020, doi: 

L Cilloni, H Fu, JF Vesga et al. The potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tuberculosis epidemic a modelling analysis. EClinicalMedicine; 01-11-2020, doi: 

MT Maurano, S Ramaswami, P Zappile et al. Sequencing identifies multiple early introductions of SARS-CoV-2 to the New York City region. Genome Research; 22-10-2020, doi: 

R McCabe, N Schmit, P Christen et al. Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic. BMC Medicine; 16-10-2020, doi: 

A Daunt, PN Perez-Guzman, J Cafferkey et al. Factors associated with reattendance to emergency services following COVID19 hospitalization. Journal of Medical Virology; 12-10-2020, doi: 

DJ Weiss, A Bertozzi-Villa, SF Rumisha et al. Indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria intervention coverage, morbidity, and mortality in Africa: a geospatial modelling analysis. The Lancet Infectious Diseases; 21-09-2020, doi: 

L Wang, H Ma, KCY Yiu et al. Heterogeneity in testing, diagnosis and outcome in SARS-CoV-2 infection across outbreak settings in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada: an observational study. CMAJ Open; 09-10-2020, doi: 

A Dighe, L Cattarino, G Cuomo-Dannenburg et al. Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions. BMC Medicine; 09-10-2020, doi: 

J Toor, ER Adams, M Aliee et al. Predicted Impact of COVID-19 on Neglected Tropical Disease Programs and the Opportunity for Innovation. Clinical Infectious Diseases; 28-09-2020, doi: 

DS Candido, IM Claro, JG de Jesus et al. Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil. Science ; 04-09-2020, doi: 

HA Thompson, N Imai, A Dighe et al. SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence on repatriation flights from Wuhan City, China. Journal of Travel Medicine; 24-08-2020, doi:  

NC Grassly, M Pons-Salort, EPK Parker et al. Comparison of molecular testing strategies for COVID-19 control: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infectious Diseases; 18-08-2020, doi:  

B Flower, JC Brown, B Simmons et al. Clinical and laboratory evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 lateral flow assays for use in a national COVID-19 seroprevalence survey. BMJ Thorax; 12-08-2020, doi: 

C Atchison, P Pristera, E Cooper et al. Usability and acceptability of home-based self-testing for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies for population surveillance. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 12-08-2020, doi: 

RN Thompson, TD Hollingsworth, V Isham et al. Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies. Proceedings of the Royal Society London, 12-08-2020. doi:  

C Poletto, SV Scarpino, EM Volz. Applications of predictive modelling early in the COVID-19 epidemic. The Lancet Digital Health; 10-08-2020, doi: 

PN Perez-Guzman, A Daunt, S Mukherjee et al. Clinical Characteristics and Predictors of Outcomes of Hospitalized Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 in a Multiethnic London National Health Service Trust: A Retrospective Cohort Study.  Clinical Infectious Diseases; 07-08-2020, doi: 

SD Hillis, HJT Unwin, Y Chen et al. Global minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and deaths of caregivers: a modelling study. The Lancet, 31-07-2021. doi:  

WM de Souza, LF Buss, D da Silva Candido et al. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. Nature Human Behaviour; 31-07-2020, doi: 

X Deng, W Gu, S Federman et al. Genomic surveillance reveals multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into Northern California. Science; 31-07-2020, doi: 

CA Prete, L Buss, A Dighe et al. Serial interval distribution of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Brazil. Journal of Travel Medicine, 25-07-2020, doi:  

DS Candido , IM Claro, JG de Jesus et al. Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil. Science; 23-07-2020, doi: 

D Armstrong-James, J Youngs, T Bicanic et al. Confronting and mitigating the risk of COVID-19 Associated Pulmonary Aspergillosis (CAPA). European Respiratory Journal, 23-07-2020, 

M Skovdal, MR Pickles, TB Hallettt et al. Complexities to consider when communicating risk of COVID-19. Public Health, 23-07-2020. doi: 

G Meyerowitz-Katz, S Bhatt, O Ratmann et al. Is the cure really worse than the disease? The health impacts of lockdowns during COVID-19. BMJ Global Health, 19-07-2021. doi:

B Jeffrey, CE Walters, KEC Ainslie et al. Anonymised and aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests that initial compliance with COVID-19 social distancing interventions was high and geographically consistent across the UK. Wellcome Open Research; 17-07-2020, doi: 

AB Hogan, B Jewell, E Sherrard-Smith et al. Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study. Lancet Global Health; 13-07-2020, doi: 

FG Sandman, PJ White, M Ramsay et al. Optimising benefits of testing key workers for infection with SARS-CoV-2: A mathematical modelling analysis. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 08-07-2020, doi: 

E Lavezzo, E Frachnin, C Ciavarella et al. Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo. Nature; 30-06-2020, doi: 

PT Walker, C Whittaker, OJ Watson et al. The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries. Science; 12-06-2020, doi:   

S. Flaxman, S Mishra, A Gandi et al. Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature; 08-06-2020, published online. 

K Krawczyk, T Chelkowski, DJ Laydon et al. Quantifying Online News Media Coverage of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Text Mining Study and Resource. Journal of Medical Internet Research. doi:

M Jit, T Jombart, ES Nightingale et al. Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020. Eurosurveillance; 07-05-2020, doi: 

KEC Ainslie, CE Walters, H Fu et al. Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment. Wellcome Open Research; 28-04-2020, 5:81, doi: 

T Jombart, K van Zandvoort, TW Russell et al. Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths. Wellcome Open Research; 27-04-2020, doi: 

R Verity, LC Okell, I Dorigatti et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infectious Diseases; 30-03-2020, doi: 

D Da S Candido, A Watts, L Abade et al. Routes for COVID-19 importation in Brazil. Journal of Travel Medicine; 23-03-2020, doi: 

Correspondence

C Whittaker, O Ratmann, C Dye, EC Sabino, NR Faria. Altered demographic profile of hospitalizations during the second COVID-19 wave in Amazonas, Brazil. The Lancet Regional Health Americas, 10-09-2021. doi:

MR Amorim, WM Souza, ACG Barros et al. Respiratory Viral Shedding in Healthcare Workers Reinfected with SARS-CoV-2, Brazil, 2020. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 06-06-2021. doi:

Ratmann, S Bhatt, S Flaxman. Implications of a highly transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 for children. BMJ Archives of Disease in Childhood, 30-03-2021. doi:

I Morales Claro, FC da Silva Sales, M Severo Ramundo et al. Local Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7, Brazil, December 2020. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 03-2021. doi:

EC Sabino, LF Buss, MPS Carvalho et al. Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence. The Lancet; 27-01-2021. doi: 

RM Anderson, TD Hollingsworth, RF Baggaley, R Maddren, C Vegvari. COVID-19 spread in the UK: the end of the beginning? The Lancet, 03-08-2020. doi: 

I Megiddo, J Nonvignon, R Owusu et al. Fairer financing of vaccines in a world living with COVID-19. BMJ Global health, 14-07-2020. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2020-002951

A Broadbent, D Walker, K Chalkidou et al. Lockdown is not egalitarian: the costs fall on the global poor. The Lancet, 19-06-2020. doi: 

A Daunt, PN Perez-Guzman, F Liew et al. Validity of the UK early access to medicines scheme criteria for Remdesivir use in patients with COVID-19 disease. Journal of Infection, 20-06-2020. doi: 

LC Okell, R Verity, OJ Watson et al. Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity? The Lancet; 11-06-2020. doi: 

Pre-print

M Whitaker, J Elliott, B Bodinier et al. Variant-specific symptoms of COVID-19 among 1,542,510 people in England (PRE-PRINT). Medrxiv, 23 May 2022. doi:

O Eales, L de Olivera Martins, AJ Page et al. The new normal? Dynamics and scale of the SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron epidemic in England. Medrxiv, 04-04-2022. doi:

M Chadeau-Hyam, D Tang, O Eales et al. The Omicron SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England during February 2022. 51勛圖厙, 10-03-2022. uri:

Eales, KEC Ainslie, CE Walters et al. Appropriately smoothing prevalence data to inform estimates of growth rate and reproduction number. MedRxiv, 05-02-2022. doi:  

N Imai, KAM Gaythorpe, S Bhatia et al. COVID-19 in Japan: insights from the first three months of the epidemic. MedRxiv, 13-02-2022. doi:

P Elliot, O Eales, B Bodinier et al. Post-peak dynamics of a national Omicron SARS-CoV-2 epidemic during January 2022. 51勛圖厙, 26 January 2022. uri:

P Elliot, B Bodinier, O Eales et al.  REACT-1 Round 16: Rapid increase in Omicron infections in England during December 2021: REACT-1 study. 51勛圖厙, 23-12-2021. uri:

C Prete Junior, L Buss, T Salomon et al. SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics in blood donors and COVID-19 epidemiology in eight Brazilian state capitals. Research Square (preprint 22-02-2022). doi:   

AB Hogan, SL Wu, P Doohan et al. The value of vaccine booster doses to mitigate the global impact of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant. MedrXiv (preprint 18-01-2022). doi:

AF Brito, E Semanova, G Dudas et al. Global disparities in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance. MedRxiv, 09-12-2021. doi:

NI Bosse, S Abbott, J Bracher et al. Comparing human and model-based forecasts of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland. MedRxiv, 05-12-2021. doi:

S Bhatia, J Wardle, RK Nash et al. A generic method and software to estimate the transmission advantage of pathogen variants in real-time : SARS-CoV-2 as a case-study. MedRxiv, 28-11-2021. doi:

REACT-1 round 15 final report: Increased breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections among adults who had received two doses of vaccine, but booster doses and first doses in children are providing important protection. 51勛圖厙, 18-11-2021.

M Chadeau-Hyam, O Eales, B Bodinier et al. REACT-1 round 15 interim report: High and rising prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England from end of September 2021 followed by a fall in late October 2021. 51勛圖厙, 04-11-2021.

REACT-1 study round 14: High and increasing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among school-aged children during September 2021 and vaccine effectiveness against infection in England. 51勛圖厙, 14-10-2021.

JMP Policarpo, AAGF Ramos, C Dye et al. Scale-free dynamics of Covid-19 in a Brazilian city. MedRxiv, 15-09-2021. doi:

P Mee, N Alexander, P Mayaud et al. Tracking the emergence of disparities in the subnational spread of COVID-19 in Brazil using an online application for real-time data visualisation: a longitudinal analysis. MedRxiv, 08-09-2021. doi:

O. Eales, C Walters, H Wang et al. Characterising the persistence of RT-PCR positivity and incidence in a community survey of SARS-CoV-2. 51勛圖厙, 13-08-2021.

R Redd, E Cooper, C Atchison et al. Behavioral responses to SARS-COV-2 antibody testing in England: REACT-2 study. Wellcome Open Research, 09-08-2021. doi:

H Ward, C Atchison, M Whitaker et al. REACT-2 round 4:  Increasing SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence in England at the start of the second wave: REACT-2 Round 4 cross-sectional study in 160,000 adults. MedRxiv, 22-07-2021. doi:

H Ward, M Whitaker, SN Tang et al. Vaccine uptake and SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence among 207,337 adults during May 2021 in England: REACT-2 study. MedRxiv, 18-07-2021. doi:

B Davies, M Araghi, M Moshe et al. Acceptability, usability and performance of lateral flow immunoassay tests for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies: REACT-2 study of self-testing in non-healthcare key workers. MedRxiv, 27-06-2021. doi:

M Whitaker, J Elliot, M Chadeau-Hyam et al. Persistent symptoms following SARS-CoV-2 infection in a random community sample of 508,707 people. 51勛圖厙, 24-06-2021.

C Whittaker, OJ Watson, C Alvarez-Moreno et al.Understanding the Potential Impact of Different Drug Properties On SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Disease Burden: A Modelling Analysis. MedRxiv, 20-06-2021. doi:

MC Mendes-Correa, F Chilardi, MC Salomao et al. SARS-CoV-2 shedding, infectivity and evolution in an immunocompromised adult patient. MedRxiv, 15-06-2021. doi:

S Riley, D Haw, CE Walters et al. REACT-1 round 11 report: low prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community prior to the third step of the English roadmap out of lockdown. MedRxiv, 17-05-2021. doi:

Eales, AJ Page, SN Tang et al. SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics in England from January to March 2021 inferred from representative community samples. Medrxiv, 14-05-2021. doi:

B Gutierrez, S Marquez, B Prado-Vivar et al. Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 transmission lineages in Ecuador. MedRxiv, 05-04-2021. doi:

TP Smith, I Dorigatti, S Mishra et al. Environmental drivers of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 transmission intensity. MedRxiv, 19-03-2021. doi:

D Aggarwal, AJ Page, U Schaefer et al.  An integrated analysis of contact tracing and genomics to assess the efficacy of travel restrictions on SARS-CoV-2 introduction and transmission in England from June to September, 2020. MedRxiv, 17-03-2021. doi:

S Riley, O Eales, D Haw et al. REACT-1 round 10 report: Level prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab-positivity in England during third national lockdown in March 2021. MedRxiv, 15-04-2021. doi:

S Riley, H Wang, O Eales et al. REACT-1 round 9 final report: Continued but slowing decline of prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 during national lockdown in England in February 2021. MedRxiv, 06-03-2021. doi:

H Ward, G Cooke, M Whitaker et al. REACT-2 Round 5: increasing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies demonstrate impact of the second wave and of vaccine roll-out in England. 51勛圖厙; 25-02-2021, access: 

S Riley, CE Walters, H Wang et al. REACT-1 round 9 interim report: downward trend of SARS-CoV-2 in England in February 2021 but still at high prevalence. medRxiv; 23-02-2021, doi: 

J Elliott, M Whitaker, B Bodinier et al. Symptom reporting in over 1 million people: community detection of COVID-19. medRxiv; 12-02-2021, doi: 

S Riley, O Eales, C Walters et al. REACT-1 round 8 final report: high average prevalence with regional heterogeneity of trends in SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community in England during January 2021. 51勛圖厙; 28-01-2021, access: 

S Riley, H Wang, O Eales et al. REACT-1 round 8 interim report: SARS-CoV-2 prevalence during the initial stages of the third national lockdown in England. 51勛圖厙; 21-01-2021, access: 

S Riley, KEC Ainslie, O Eales et al. REACT-1 round 7 updated report: regional heterogeneity in changes in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the second national COVID-19 lockdown in England. 51勛圖厙; 15-12-2020, doi: 

S Riley, KEC Ainslie, O Eales et al. REACT-1 round 7 interim report: fall in prevalence of swab-positivity in England during national lockdown. 51勛圖厙; 30-11-2020, access: /media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/imperial_react1_r7_interim.pdf

S Mishra, J Scott, H Zhu et al. A COVID-19 Model for Local Authorities of the United Kingdom. medRxiv; 27-11-2020, doi: 

D Haw, P Christen, G Forchini et al. DAEDALUS: An economic-epidemiological model to optimize economic activity while containing the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. 51勛圖厙; 16-11-2020. doi: 

S Riley, KEC Ainslie, O Eales et al. REACT-1 round 6 updated report: high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity with reduced rate of growth in England at the start of November 2020. 51勛圖厙; 12-11-2020, access: 

S Riley, KEC Ainslie, O Eales et al. High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity and increasing R number in England during October 2020: REACT-I round 6 interim report. medRxiv; 03-11-2020, doi: 

H Ward, G Cooke, C Atchison et al. Declining prevalence of antibody positivity to SARS-CoV-2: a community study of 365,000 adults. 51勛圖厙; 27-10-2020, doi: 

S Riley, K Ainslie, O Eales et al. High and increasing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity in England during end September beginning October 2020: REACT-1 round 5 updated report. 51勛圖厙; 09-10-2020, doi: 

S Riley, KEC Ainslie, O Eales et al. High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity in England during September 2020: interim report of round 5 of REACT-1 study. 51勛圖厙; 01-10-2020, doi: 

BA Djaafara, C Whittaker, OJ Watson et al. Quantifying the dynamics of COVID-19 burden and impact of interventions in Java, Indonesia. medRxiv; 02-10-2020, doi: 

M Ragonnet-Cronin, O Boyd, L Geidelberg et al. COVID-19 epidemic severity is associated with timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions. medRxiv; 18-09-2020, doi: 

L Geidelberg, O Boyd, D Jorgenson et al. Genomic epidemiology of a densely sampled COVID-19 outbreak in China. medRxiv; 16-09-2020, doi: 

TA Mellan, HH Hoeltgebaum, S Mishra et al. Subnational analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. medRxiv; 24-08-2020, doi:

H Ward, CJ Atchison, M Whitaker et al. Antibody prevalence for SARS-CoV-2 in England following first peak of the pandemic: REACT2 study in 100,000 adults. medRxiv; 21-08-2020, doi: 

S Riley, KEC Ainslie, O Eales et al. Transient dynamics of SARS-COV-2 as England exited national lockdown. medRxiv; 06-08-2020, doi: 

NTD Modelling Consortium. The potential impact of programmes interruptions due to COVID-19 on 7 neglected tropical diseases: a modelling-based analysis. Gates Open Res;  17-07-2020. doi: 

S Riley, KEC Aindsly, O Eales et al. Community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 virus in England during May 2020: REACT study. medRxiv; 11-07-2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.10.20150524

S Mishra, T Berah, TA Mellan et al. On the derivation of the renewal equation from anage-dependent branching process: an epidemic modellingperspective. ArXiv Quantitative Biology - population and evolution; 30-06-2020, arXiv:  

S Bhatia, N Imai, G Cuomo-Dannenburg et al. Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China. Wellcome Open Research; 15-06-2020, doi: 

BL Jewell, JA Smith, TB Hallett. The Potential Impact of Interruptions to HIV Services: A Modelling Case Study for South Africa. medRxiv; 27-04-2020, doi:   

N Imai, KAM Gaythorpe, S Abbott  et al. Adoption and impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19. Wellcome Open Research; 02-04-2020, 5:59, doi: 

E Volz, H Fu, H Wang et al. Genomic epidemiology of a densely sampled COVID19 outbreak in China. medRxiv; 19-03-2020, doi: 

Online reports

R Johnson, B Djaafara, D Haw et al. Report 51: Valuing lives, education and the economy in an epidemic: Societal benefit of SARS-CoV-2 booster vaccinations in Indonesia. 51勛圖厙. 14-02-2022. doi:

NM Ferguson, A Ghani, W Hinsley et al. Report 50: Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England. 51勛圖厙. 22-12-2021. doi:

NM Ferguson, A Ghani, A Cori et al. Report 49: Growth, population distribution and immune escape of Omicron in England. 51勛圖厙, 16-12-2021. doi:

AB Hogan, SL Wu, P Doohan et al.  Report 48: The value of vaccine booster doses to mitigate the global impact of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant. 51勛圖厙, 16-12-2021. doi:

S Bhatia, J Wardle, RK Nash, P Nouvellett, A Cori. Report 47: A generic method and software to estimate the transmission advantage of pathogen variants in real-time : SARS-CoV-2 as a case-study. 51勛圖厙, 26-11-2021 doi:    

A Brizzi, C Whittaker, LMS. Servo et al. Report 46: Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals. 51勛圖厙. 6-10-2021, doi:  

G Nason and J Wei. Report 45: Quantifying the economic response to Covid-19 mitigations and death rates. 51勛圖厙. 1-09-2021, /mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-45-economic-resonse/  

S Mishra, S Mindermann, M Sharma, et al. Report 44: Recent trends in SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in England. 51勛圖厙. 20-05-2021, doi:  

D Mesa, A Hogan et al. Report 43: Quantifying the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic. 51勛圖厙. 24-03-21, doi:   

E Volz, S Mishra, M Chand et al. Report 42: Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England: insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data. 51勛圖厙; 31-12-2020, doi:

ES Knock, LK Whittles, JA Lees et al. Report 41: The 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England: key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions. 51勛圖厙; 22-12-2020, doi: 

JC DAeth, S Ghosal, F Grimm et al. Report 40: Optimal scheduling rules for elective care to minimize years of life lost during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: an application to England. 51勛圖厙; 10-12-2020, doi: 

OJ Watson, N Abdelmagid, A Ahmed et al. Report 39: Characterising COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and mortality under-ascertainment in Khartoum, Sudan. 51勛圖厙; 01-12-2020, doi: 

HA Thompson, A Mousa, A Dighe et al.  Report 38: SARS-CoV-2 setting-specific transmission rates: a systematic review and meta-analysis. 51勛圖厙; 27-11-2020, doi: 

KAM Gaythorpe, S Bhatia, T Mangal et al. Report 37: Childrens role in the COVID-19 pandemic: as systematic review of susceptibility, severity, and transmissibility. 51勛圖厙; 25-11-2020, doi:  

R McCabe, MD Kont, N Schmit et al. Report 36: Modelling ICU capacity under different epidemiological scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic in three western European countries. 51勛圖厙; 16-11-2020, doi: 

D Haw, G Forchini, P Christen et al. Report 35: COVID-19 How can we keep schools and universities open? Differentiating closures by economic sector to optimize social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. 51勛圖厙; 16-11-2020, doi: 

NF Brazeau, R Verity, S Jenks et al. Report 34: COVID-19 Infection Fatality Ratio Estimates from Seroprevalence. 51勛圖厙; 29-10-2020, doi: 

AB Hogan, P Winskill, OJ Watson et al. Report 33: Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine. 51勛圖厙; 25-09-2020, doi: 

M Monod, A Blenkinsop, X Xi et al. Report 32: Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States. 51勛圖厙; 17-09-2020, doi: 

OJ Watson, M Alhaffar, Z Mehchy et al. Report 31: Estimating under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality: an analysis of novel data sources to provide insight into COVID-19 dynamics in Damascus, Syria. 51勛圖厙; 15-09-2020, doi: 

H Fu, X Xi, H Wang et al. Report 30: The COVID-19 epidemic trends and control measures in mainland China. 51勛圖厙; 03-07-2020, doi: 

MAC Vollmer, S Radhakrishnan, MD Kont et al. Report 29: The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all-cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study. 51勛圖厙; 01-07-2020, doi: 

G Forchini, A Lochen, T Hallett et al. Report 28: Excess non-COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales between 29th February and 5th June 2020. 51勛圖厙; 18-06-2020, doi: 

R McCabe, N Schmit, P Christen et al. Report 27: Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic. 51勛圖厙; 15-06-2020, doi: 

P. Nouvellet, S Bhatia, A Cori et al. Report 26: Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission. 51勛圖厙; 08-06-2020, doi: 

A Dighe, L Cattarino, G Cuomo-Dannenburg et al. Report 25: Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions. 51勛圖厙; 29-05-2020, doi: 

B Jeffrey, CE Walters, KE Ainslie et al. Report 24: Anonymised & aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests initial compliance with COVID19 social distancing interventions was high & geographically consistent across UK. 51勛圖厙; 29-05-2020, doi: 

HJT Unwin, S Mishra, VC Bradley et al. Report 23: State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States. 51勛圖厙; 21-05-2020, doi: 

P Winskill, C Whittaker, P Walker et al. Report 22: Equity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: an assessment of the direct and indirect impacts on disadvantaged and vulnerable populations in low- and lower middle-income countries. 51勛圖厙; 12-05-2020, doi: 

TA Mellan, HH Hoeltgebaum, S Mishra et al. Report 21: Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil. 51勛圖厙; 08-05-2020, doi: 

MAC Vollmer, S Mishra, HJT Unwin et al. Report 20: Using mobility to estimate the transmission intensity of COVID-19 in Italy: A subnational analysis with future scenarios. 51勛圖厙; 04-05-2020, doi: 

AR hogan, B Jewell, E Sherrard-Smith et al. Report 19: The Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on HIV, TB and Malaria in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. 51勛圖厙; 01-05-2020, doi: 

E Sherrard-Smith, AB Hogan, A Hamlet et al. Report 18: The potential public health impact of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa. 51勛圖厙;01-05-2020, doi: .

PN Perez-Guzman, A Daunt, S Mukherjee et al. Report 17: Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in a London NHS Trust: a retrospective cohort study. 51勛圖厙; 29-04-2020, doi: .

NC Grassly, M Pons-Salort, EPK Parker, PJ White et al. Report 16: Role of testing in COIVD-19 control. 51勛圖厙; 23-04-2020. doi: .

P Christen, J C DAeth, A L繪chen et al. Report 15: Strengthening hospital capacity for the COVID-19 pandemic. 51勛圖厙; 17-04-2020. doi: .

P Prister, V Papageorgiou, M Kaur et al. Report 14: Online Community Involvement in COVID-19 Research & Outbreak Response: Early Insights from a UK Perspective. 51勛圖厙; 03-04-2020. doi: .   

S Flaxman, S Mishra, A Gandy et al. Report 13: Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries. 51勛圖厙; 30-03-2020. doi: .

PGT Walker, C Whittaker, O Watson et al. Report 12: The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression. 51勛圖厙; 26-03-2020 doi: .

KEC Ainslie, C Walters, H Fu et al. Report 11: Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment. 51勛圖厙; 24-03-2020. doi: .

C Atchison, L Bowman, JW Eaton et al. Report 10: Public Response to UK Government Recommendations on COVID-19: Population Survey, 17-18 March 2020. 51勛圖厙; 20-03-2020. doi: .  

NM Ferguson, D Laydon, G Nedjati-Gilani et al. Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand. 51勛圖厙; 16-03-2020. doi: .  

K Gaythorpe, N Imai, G Cuomo-Dannenburg et al. Report 8: Symptom progression of COVID-19. 51勛圖厙; 11-03-2020. doi: .

H Thompson, N Imai, Amy Dighe et al. Report 7: Estimating infection prevalence in Wuhan City from repatriation flights. 51勛圖厙; 09-03-2020. doi: .

S Bhatia, N Imai, G Cuomo-Dannenburg et al. Report 6: Relative sensitivity of international surveillance. 51勛圖厙; 21-02-2020. doi:.  

E Volz, M Baguelin, S Bhatia et al. Report 5: Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2. 51勛圖厙; 15-02-2020. doi: .   

I Dorigatti, L Okell, A Cori et al. Report 4: Severity of 2019-novel coronavirus (nCoV). 51勛圖厙; 10-02-2020. doi: .   

N Imai, A Cori, I Dorigatti, M Baguelin, CA Donnelly, S Riley, NM Ferguson. Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV. 51勛圖厙; 25-01-2020. doi: .

N Imai, I Dorigatti, A Cori, CA Donnelly, S Riley, NM Ferguson. Report 2: Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China. 51勛圖厙; 22-01-2020. doi: .     

N Imai, I Dorigatti, A Cori, S Riley, NM Ferguson. Report 1: Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China. 51勛圖厙; 17-01-2020. doi: .

Planning tools

COVID-19 Austria. 51勛圖厙. 

COVID-19 elective care optimal scheduling tool. 51勛圖厙. 

COVID-19 LMIC Reports. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, 51勛圖厙. 

COVID-19 NAT-RDT. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, 51勛圖厙. 

COVID-19 Orphanhood Trends. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, 51勛圖厙 College london.  

COVID-19 Orphanhood Calculator. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, 51勛圖厙. 

COVID-19 Orphanhood Calculator US. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, 51勛圖厙.  

COVID-19 Scenario Analysis Tool. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, 51勛圖厙. 

COVID-19 UK. 51勛圖厙. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.4330647. 

covid19model USA.  51勛圖厙. 

covid19model Europe. 51勛圖厙. 

J-IDEA COVID-19 excess deaths tracker for England and Wales. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute (J-IDEA), 51勛圖厙. 

J-IDEA Pandemic Hospital Planner. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute (J-IDEA), 51勛圖厙. /media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-04-17-COVID19-Report-15-hospital-planner.xlsm

MRIIDS. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, 51勛圖厙.  

Short term forecasts of COVID-19 deaths in multiple countries. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute (J-IDEA), 51勛圖厙. 

TB service disruption simulator. World Health Organization South East Asia Regional Office (SEARO). 

Software packages

CovidSimMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, 51勛圖厙. 

Eigen1. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, 51勛圖厙.

 

epidemia. 51勛圖厙. 

EpiEstim. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, 51勛圖厙. 

markovid. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, 51勛圖厙. 

orderly. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, 51勛圖厙. 

PhyDynMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, 51勛圖厙. 

sircovid. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, 51勛圖厙. 

squireMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis,51勛圖厙. 

nimueMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, 51勛圖厙. 

Contact us


For any enquiries related to the MRC Centre please contact:

Scientific Manager
Susannah Fisher
mrc.gida@imperial.ac.uk

External Relationships and Communications Manager
Dr Sabine van Elsland
s.van-elsland@imperial.ac.uk