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An Edinburgh University analysis of 51³Ô¹ÏÍø's Report 9 COVID-19 modelling has confirmed the group's key projections from March.

The replicated the 51³Ô¹ÏÍø analysis, which was published in March 2020 ahead of the UK’s lockdown.  

This provides further independent confirmation that 51³Ô¹ÏÍø’s modelling was robust, reproducible and sound in its conclusions COVID-19 Response Team

To do so, the researchers carried out an independent calculation using the code made available by Professor Neil Ferguson and team.

The researchers find that this , produced good forecasts, including the projection that prompt interventions were highly effective at reducing peak demand for intensive care unit beds.

In the absence of an effective vaccination programme, none of the proposed mitigation strategies in the United Kingdom would reduce the predicted total number of deaths below 200,000, the Edinburgh research team finds. 

51³Ô¹ÏÍø College’s Report 9, which was one of several pieces of modelling to inform the UK government ahead of lockdown measures in March, has been subject to intense scrutiny, and has held up to expert analysis. 

A recent Cambridge-led Codecheck into Report 9 confirmed the , which is publicly available as part of 51³Ô¹ÏÍø’s CovidSim. 

A spokesperson for 51³Ô¹ÏÍø’s COVID-19 Response Team said: “This provides further independent confirmation that 51³Ô¹ÏÍø’s modelling in March was robust, reproducible and sound in its conclusions. We welcome this independent analysis of Report 9 as we continue to advance our understanding of the early epidemic.” 

In a the Edinburgh study's author Professor Graeme Ackland said: "Scientific predictions are often published to great fanfare, with retrospective analysis seldom attracting as much attention. Report 9 appeared in March, we completed our study in June, and a lot has happened since. Infections went down steadily during lockdown, as predicted, and at the time of writing are rising again, just as predicted. With hindsight, the 51³Ô¹ÏÍø model has proved remarkably accurate. It turned out that the experts really are expert."

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