Stochastic Techno-Economic Assessment of Saudi Arabian Hydrogen Export Pathways to European and Asian Markets

Faisal Aldossary

Saudi Arabia can credibly pursue both blue and green hydrogen export, cheap associated gas for CCS-based production, strong solar resource for electrolysis, but that dual position means cost and carbon compliance both depend on parameters that move together, not independently. Existing techno-economic assessments mostly report single-point estimates, understating the risk in decisions with 20–30 year horizons.

This thesis builds a stochastic supply-chain model from Saudi production gate to delivered cost at European and Asian import terminals: six production pathways, two carriers (ammonia, liquid hydrogen), two export ports, two import markets. Using Latin Hypercube Sampling with rank-correlated inputs across 56 parameters and Sobol sensitivity analysis, it produces joint probability distributions rather than point estimates. The model also incorporates the carbon policy instruments governing each import market (EU ETS, CBAM, and RED III for Rotterdam; GX-ETS and hydrogen co-firing mandates for Japan), and projects future cost trajectories to 2050 using Wright's Law learning curves applied to electrolyser CAPEX and solar LCOE.

Supervisor 1: Dr. Yousef Alshammari, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Supervisor 2: Professor Adam Hawkes, Department of Chemical Engineering

Market-Based Mechanisms and the Bankability of Low-Carbon Hydrogen Pathways in California

Ian Abou-Jaoude

Low-carbon hydrogen projects often fail to reach a final investment decision. Levelised cost is an engineering metric, while bankability is a financial markets outcome, and the literature has not bridged the two. This project builds that bridge for blue and green hydrogen in California using a Monte Carlo project finance model that converts market-based mechanisms (45Q, 45V, and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard) into probability distributions of debt service coverage and equity returns. Because US policy and input costs are deeply uncertain, results are reported as scenarios and distributions, not point estimates, showing that policy design and durability bind bankability.

Supervisor: Dr. Gbemi Oluleye, Centre for Environmental Policy

Techno-Economic Feasibility of an India-Gulf-Europe Green Hydrogen and Ammonia Corridor

Louay El Cheikh

The project assesses whether an energy corridor linking India to Europe through the Gulf can deliver green hydrogen and ammonia at a competitive cost. Using a Python cost model built on a sourced assumptions base, it compares four supply configurations: an India-anchored corridor that ships ammonia to a Gulf hub for reconversion to hydrogen and onward pipeline delivery, a Gulf-anchored pipeline route, and direct India-to-Europe ammonia shipping. The model quantifies delivered cost per kilogram of hydrogen, tests sensitivity to the main drivers such as conversion losses and financing costs, and traces where economic value is captured along the chain. Alongside the cost analysis, the work weighs EU demand credibility, route geopolitics, and regional value capture to identify the conditions under which the corridor becomes viable.

Supervisor: Dr. Yousef Alshammari, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Comparative Techno-Economic Assessment and Policy Evaluation of Maritime Clean Hydrogen Exports to the EU, 2030–2040

Manal Abdulhammed Fallatah

Securing affordable and reliable clean hydrogen imports is critical to Europe’s transition towards climate neutrality, yet the competitiveness in this future market will not depend on production costs alone. This project compares prospective hydrogen exporters using a full-chain levelised cost model covering production, conversion, transport, and delivery to the EU. It also examines how country-specific financing and supply-chain conditions influence the delivered hydrogen costs in 2030 and 2040. The results are combined with a policy and supply-security assessment to identify suppliers who are capable of providing cost-competitive, low-carbon and resilient hydrogen supplies to the European market over the long term.

Supervisor 1: Dr. Yousef AlShammari, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Supervisor 2: Professor Adam Hawkes, Department of Chemical Engineering

Technoeconomic of Breakthrough Hydrogen Technologies in Offshore Wind-to-X Systems

Noppasin Khacharoen

Offshore wind farms are increasingly considered as sites for direct conversion of electricity into transportable fuels such as hydrogen or ammonia, rather than relying solely on subsea cables. This project assesses five emerging offshore Wind-to-X technologies — high-pressure PEM electrolysis, direct seawater electrolysis, metal hydride slurry storage, direct electrochemical ammonia synthesis, and the battolyser — benchmarked against a conventional green hydrogen baseline. Using a multi-pathway MILP optimisation framework across a realistic offshore network of wind farms, terminals, and marine routes, the research identifies the cost and performance thresholds each technology must clear to become competitive, informing which pathways merit further investment as the sector scales.

Supervisor 1: Dr. Mahdi Sharifzadeh, Department of Chemical Engineering
Supervisor 2: Professor Nilay Shah, Department of Chemical Engineering

Advanced Refrigeration System Design and Optimization for Integrated LNG Supply Chains

Ramir Pchenushay

This thesis designs and compares two external refrigeration cycles, a mixed refrigerant (MR) cycle and a pure-component cascade cycle, for a cryogenic air separation unit (ASU) integrated within an LNG cold energy recycling supply chain. LNG cold energy precools the ASU feed air, narrowing the residual cooling. Using Aspen HYSYS simulation and Bayesian optimisation, both cycles are designed, simulated, and compared thermo-economically to identify the superior refrigeration technology for this novel, partial-range cryogenic application.

Supervisor 1: Dr. Mahdi Sharifzadeh, Department of Chemical Engineering
Supervisor 2: Dr. Depak Lal, External Supervisor

Shipping and Conversion Costs in Global Green Hydrogen Trade:  Optimal Carrier Choice and Infrastructure Requirements for Four Major Corridors by 2040

Wajeeh Sial

Green hydrogen is widely seen as key to decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors, yet cost estimates for shipping it internationally vary wildly across the literature. My thesis asks whether this reflects genuine uncertainty or inconsistent methodology. I compare four carriers (liquid hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, LOHC) across four corridors: Australia-East Asia, Morocco-EU, South America-EU and GCC-EU, using an original cost model, while examining infrastructure and energy security factors existing studies overlook.

Supervisor 1: Dr. Yousef Alshammari, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Supervisor 2: Professor Adam Hawkes, Department of Chemical Engineering

New material solutions for hydrogen storage and transportation

Yining Wu

Liquid hydrogen (LHâ‚‚) is a key enabler of the energy transition, but its cryogenic storage temperature exposes containment materials to severe thermal and mechanical stress. This research evaluates the feasibility of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) as a secondary liner for concrete-vessel LHâ‚‚ storage tanks. Through cryogenic mechanical testing, thermal expansion characterisation, and literature-based compatibility analysis with the concrete substrate, the study determines whether HDPE can meet the containment requirements of next-generation LHâ‚‚ infrastructure.

Supervisor 1: Dr. Chao Wu, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Supervisor 2: Dr. Zhenzhou Wang, University of Southampton
Supervisor 3: Dr. Wendell Bailey, University of Southampton